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ghost's picture

Scouts are talking about Hultzen's change as being the best in this year's draft class...the best in college...the best they've scouted in a long time.  Not just a plus change...a plus plus change with Sherrill-class deception and arm action.  You're looking at the wrong comps on this one...making a bad assumption about his change-up based on the K rate drop.
Not all 9 K college pitchers are created equal.  Hutlzen gets his 9 Ks in the toughtest college division and with a game that will get BETTER in the big leagues than in college...NOT worse.  It's a lot easier to keep the metal bats, no matter how they're made, in the zone longer...they have larger barrels and most college hitters swing them more slowly...meaning Hultzen's change will fool fewer ACC bats than it does MLB bats.  As well, umps in college suck.  Period.  Hultzen will benefit from better umpiring and get the Moyer strike zone.
A modest prediction.  If his velo is really just 90 mph...and he throws the same change-up...he'll fan 8-9 per game in the big leagues with it assuming he stays at all healthy.

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