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The only slight refinement I might add is, what if the fitness/freshness graph follows a slight "sawtooth" graph that is gently downhill ... down during the exercise, up during sleep, but trending slightly down over time...
Usually re-set by days off, but when in the midst of 20 games in a row, "sawtoothing" just down under the crispness waterline...
Perhaps also this "sawtooth" graph is re-set by the double-day off that many managers favor ... the bench game following the travel day...