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ghost's picture

I was a little concerned when he appeared to square one up and have it die in the middle of left field for an easy out yesterday...but the macro-trends all appear just fine to me.
In terms of knowledge of the strike zone, his EYE over his entire career:
0.10/0.26/0.34/0.39/0.39/0.67 (probably not going to stay that high..but the macro trend is clear)
In terms of contact results, his K/PA:
20%/26%/20%/20%/22%/7% (!) - no trend here...his essential batting approach has not changed, although this year, something is different...he may be going with a purely pepper swing more often this year while he tries to get his timing back...that would be my first guess.
In terms of contact skill, his BABIP:
.336/.321/.297/.333/.297/.197 (!) - this is clearly just bad luck...or a temporary bit of bad skill caused by him feeling a bit over his head while he adjusts back to the game after so much time with stomach problems
In terms of his approach, we can look at both his pitch-stalking tendency (P/PA) and his trajectories:
P/PA - 3.77/4.14/4.22/4.10/4.20/3.91 - even if he IS using his pepper swing while he gets his timing back, he's still stalking pitches just fine and I expect this number will come back up
GB/FB - 0.78/0.80/0.770.84/0.74/0.95 (yeah...looks like the pepper swing is out right now...hitting more grounders...and they're finding gloves...which is the opposite of normal...normally, grounders are harder to turn into outs, not easier.
LD% - 20/14/16/19/17/12 - so he's not hitting the ball quite as hard...which tends to happen when you use your pepper swing...but...
SwS% (how many times he swings and misses) - 14/19/14/14/17/12 (he's covering the ball better)
F/S% (strikes fouled) - 25/24/25/24/24/27 (he's fouling more off...his timing isn't right yet)
O-Sw: 26/24/24/23/29/35 (he's swinging at bad pitches more
O-Ct: 55/47/56/58/61/79 (! - he's making WAY more contact)
Z-Sw: 62/61/59/59/58/64 (swings at good pitches more too...)
Z-Ct: 87/84/86/87/84/88 (and making just as much contact...so...)
Ct% - 80/74/79/79/77/85 (making a lot more contact in general...)
Meaning his BABIP should go up...not down.
He needs to relax a bit and chase fewer bad pitches and his BABIP will take care of itself. Otherwise, he doesn't look any worse right now than he ever did.

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