Carp was a prospect I was extremely high on coming out of the Mets system. At 22 in AAA he had produced a great line (.300/.400/.470 with a .9 EYE) and a decent chunk of power with a projectable frame. I really liked getting him in the package, and was looking forward to his time in Tacoma.
Problem was, he didn't step forward in AAA. Now, he didn't really step back a ton - his power stayed the same in a bigger park, his average dipped, and his walks dropped, but he was within shouting distance of being the same player. It's just that those dips took him from "on the verge of something special" to "on the verge of being nothing special at all."
But nevermind, I figured the NEXT year would bring out the best in him, and he'd still just be 24. Then his average dropped again, his walks dropped again...and his HR power increased while his doubles fell. He swung more for the fences but only got 6 more XBHs in return for his deficiencies in other areas.
The question was whether that was a learning stage or a move of desperation.
So what does this year tell us? Doubles power came back, HR power went up even higher...walks are still lowish but his eye is basically the same as it's been the last 2 years. His average is through the roof.
That's the biggest difference. Yes, the HR power is great, but which is his "true" AAA batting average, 2010 or 2011?
Interestingly, last year's BABIP was .259. His career minor league BABIP is .337, which is about right for the minors (there's a higher average BABIP than in the bigs because the fielders are worse there). This year he's a bit high at .366, but he's still closer to league-average this year than he was last year. He really IS crushing the ball around the park.
And he reminds me a bit of Brad Hawpe. Brad had a phenomenal year at 23 in the Cal League with a great eye, then crashed a bit a year later in AA. He recovered to excellence in AAA, but Sky Sox stadium is really kind to hitters, being at altitude and all.
Still, he took his game to the bigs for a cup of coffee at 25, half a season at 26, and then four full seasons before crashing out and tumbling down the cliff of ineffectiveness. He still provided a ton of offensive help on the cheap for several years.
Carp is the same age, with a less-spectacular minor league situation. But the kid looks like he's figured out his game at the plate, and now is his chance to prove it.
I believe Peguero will have moments of "amazing" and an early career of "eh". Halman looks like breaking his hand was the best thing to happen to him since someone handed him a bat, but I don't trust him yet.
But Carp? Carp is about as ready-to-go as we're gonna get from any of our 2nd-tier guys, and I'd like to see him get the chance to prove he belongs in the lineup. Carp for LF/DH as we go forward.
Ditching Cust is the issue. He was almost hitting in May.
April: .193/.350/.229, .302 BABIP
May: .276/.375/.447, .408 BABIP
June: .088/.344/.217, .067 BABIP
Do you believe May is somewhat legit, despite the .408 BABIP, and that his 8 June games are artificially low with that BABIP that means more hits and more power hits should have fallen?
Or do you see the 2 HRs and 19 RBI from your supposed power-hitting RBI man and think that even a rookie like Carp can do better in that department? Especially in the runs scored dept (where Jack and his .359 OBP have only contributed 16 runs)?
Carp needs games. Several in a row and many in a week. We need to see him, and we already know what Cust is giving us at the plate.
Now it's just a matter of making the switch and letting Carp show us if he can do better.
~G
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