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In regards to the trade deadline, I agree that there will likely be a clearer picture by the end of July.  But, I would also add that the trade deadline is not a binary decision time -- there is a 3rd option -- stand pat.
 
Typical group-think is that either you are "in" the race (buyer) or "out" (seller) ... and that if something doesn't get done one way or another the period was "wasted".  While I would accept this view as "generally" correct ... I think the 2011 Mariners may well fall into the 3rd category ... where they are in trade ZugZwang and their 'best' option is to play the hand they are holding.
 
Mind you, if the club could replace Figgins with ... Longoria or AROD, I'd be more than ready to board the trading train.  But, with the current roster -- the current weaknesses -- the current talent on the farm -- my instinct is that option 3 is likely going to remain the best.  I'm sure Jack will be hunting anyway ... but barring one of those "say what" trades (Tampa got Kazmir for Victor Zambrano as I recall) ...