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While I agree that Fister and Vargas look better from a health perspective, they also have the least to lose.  If Fister starts struggling with elbow or shoulder fatigue, what happens when he loses his razor sharp command? 
For me, the only M's pitcher that isn't a big risk going forward in Felix: demonstrated good health to date, takes his profession seriously, could loose A LOT in terms of stuff and still be well above league average.  I mine where do you put the over-under for Felix's WAR before retirement?  50? 
While I think the cost of a player is an important factor in value, GMs do not trade Hall of Fame talents for cost reasons very often (Miguel Cabrera comes to mind).  The Gary Sheffield's and Richie Allen's of the world do get traded on occasion, though that is because they are a pain in the sitter, but for cost reasons.