by Buster Posey:
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?name=olney_buster&id=6732605
Jason Vargas, Seattle Mariners. He doesn't possess the stuff of Felix Hernandez orMichael Pineda, but he has become a reliable part of the Mariners' rotation, and in shutting out the Padres on Friday night, Vargas lowered his ERA to 3.57. In his past six starts, he's thrown three complete games and hasn't thrown fewer than six innings in any outing.
And he's just our 4th-best starter, 5th with a healthy Erik Bedard. He's not a free agent for 3 more years, as well. Felix is the staff ace and getting paid like it starting next year, Pineda is the #2 being paid basically nothing, Erik is our #3 while being a FA after the season, Fister is our #4 with 5 years of club control left (IIRC) and Vargas is our #5 with 3 more years of club control. Yowtch.
By FIP:
Felix: 2.82 (5th in the AL)
Pineda: 3.08 (tied for 8th)
Fister: 3.08 (tied for 8th)
Erikkk: 3.50 (19th)
Vargas: 3.58 (21st)
So we've basically got 5 of the AL's top 20 starters pitching for us. Last year's AA starter of the year (Beavan) is in AAA now and finally has his head on straight (4:1 K: BB ratio, 3ish ERA, 7.5 K/9 last month...basically Fister-ish). We'll see him in a day or two for pitching for Erik.
We had 5 pitchers in the AA All-Star game, most in the Fister/Vargas mold - led by Andy Carraway, but Erasmo is doing well too. Big thank you to Lance Painter for helping those guys without wicked heat still carve up lineups.
Hultzen will be joining our farm system in about 6 weeks. Paxton just got bumped up to AA and will start there in a couple of days. Gillheeney may not be far behind as he's been laser-sharp in the Cal League with just the HR bug biting him - the same bug that bit Carraway last year and has disappeared this year in more spacious confines.
Whatcha wanna do? We aren't gonna have a full-court press for rotation spots til 2013, probably. Do you trade Vargas a year early rather than a year late? He's not a FA til after the 2014 season, while Fister has 2 more years of club control than THAT. If one of em gets injured their value drops to zero.
Meanwhile, none of the up-and-comers are fireballing whiz-kids, Paxton and Walker aside. Carraway and Beavan are in no one's top-100 prospect list, just as Fister and Vargas weren't, so they won't bring you huge returns until they're doing what Fister and Vargas are doing.
So if you can't get what you need just in free agency, then your most attractive trade possibilities are to cash in arms. Either you spend the Paxtons and Walkers of the system as headliners...or you use one of your club-controlled guys who are putting a hurting on the major leagues. Pineda is the most valuable commodity in the organization, but I'm assuming he's untouchable.
Fister is pitching with him stride for stride and Vargas is a complete game warrior with limited downside.
How valuable are they, and when do you decide to cash them in? The offense is on pace to score, what, 50 more runs than last year? We all realize that pro-rated we're STILL 50 runs worse than the next-worst AL offense was last year, right? It's nice of Oakland and Minny to hang out in our neighborhood for the block party this year, but we're 70 runs below league average at the HALF-WAY point so far. Without Greg Halman of all people we get no-hit last night. Smoak is starting to crack under the pressure of knowing he has to drive in every run - and so hasn't driven in a run in 2 weeks.
Adding an Alex Gordon to this team makes everything easier. Do you give up a WAR T-Rex to make that happen?
I don't see how we can avoid it, honestly. Fister and Vargas have been amazing, and I love them. And without giving one of them up I'm not sure how we get this all turned around quickly enough for the guys that are left.
Not without emptying out some serious farm pieces, anyway. So I guess it's take your pick: keep both of Vargas and Fister or keep Paxton and Walker and Seager and some others.
Neither option is perfect, but we can't run an offense like this any more. If I could trade Fister or (preferrably) Vargas for a young crusher in LF and then sign Prince Fielder, I would do it.
How much better does this offense look with Ackley/Fielder/Smoak/Ethier (or Gordon or Kemp or whomever) at its core, with Halman splitting time in CF, Seager/Kennedy at 3rd and Olivo behind the plate?
Could we win a couple of these phenomenal pitching performances then?
If you get an offense potentially 5 or 6 deep instead of 1 or 2, then the 4 remaining starters might have a shot to win some ballgames. And maybe the new #5 could too.
I would investigate that option with all available alacrity.
~G