I got yer 4 games right here, Gumby (part two)
=== July 1-4, 2011 ===
In Bard's next four games, the Mariners gave up 0, 1, 1, and 1 runs. Dr. D danced the Futterwack vigorously.
Well, the M's have great pitchers, though -- three different Cy Young candidates in their rotation. But! Were these lockdowns fired by Felix and Bedard? No, this glorious run included:
- A complete-game shutout twirled by Jason Vargas (see May 23 section above);
- A 1-run game by Doug Fister at his best -- with a 9 6 1 1 1 7 line, mind you
- An ML debut game by Blake Beavan, of all people, and
- Monday's 7 strikeout, 4-hit, 1-run game by Michael Pineda
True, the M's opponents were offenses well into the lower half of the league.
But Chris Gimenez' long string of beatdowns were also frequently against bad offenses. For example, Gimenez got Jason Vargas crushed 9-1 by the selfsame A's, and that's not the game referred to up in the May 23 section (that was against the Twinkies). He got Felix smashed by the Royals, the postgame screamout game. This year's catcher ERA's stand at:
- 5.03 - Gimenez
- 2.86 - Olivo
- 1.43 - Bard
You have to be careful with CERA's. Guess what? We have been careful. We know what's going on with the M's before we look up CERA's.
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=== July 5 - Sept. 28, 2011 ===
The Mainframe estimates that the Josh Bard move is worth at least three, and maybe more like six, games in the win column.
Naturally, those wins will be invisible to WAR, because Jason Vargas beatdowns don't show up on Chris Gimenez' WAR. But their backup C had in the first half cost the M's -4 games in the standings, going by catcher W-L record (which is fully justified in view of his CERA).
Hard to believe? Then think of Gimenez -- a 3B trying to catch -- as being worth -3 games, rather than Bard being worth +3. Sabermetricians find it much easier to believe in (unorthodox) marginal differences that are insults, rather than compliments. ;- ) They can believe that a manager cost a team six games.
***
I give Josh Bard credit for two* games already that their previous backup C would probably have lost: This nailbiting 2-1 win Monday, and Blake Beavan's terrific debut performance in a 3-1 win. (Never mind that Bard actually hit a home run, also, in the 2-1 win.)
With the Mariners playing 2-1, 2-0 and 3-1 games every night, they can't afford to have a backup catcher cause any SP knockouts, much less cause them 60% of the time.
***
Olivo's bat will also benefit from the fact that he can now keep his legs fresh. Forget 125 games vs 145 games: this long week off, around the All-Star break, will pop Olivo right back to Re-Set Baby. A long week off sets your muscles back to 100%. Well, provided that you're sleeping in and drinking orange juice...
***
Eric Wedge perceived, in Bard's first or second game, that Bard was performing superbly. He then decided, as was reported, to "take advantage of Bard's strong play" to rest Olivo.
It's a shame that the Mariners didn't do this voluntarily, for the month of June. But the point is, the M's just added 3-5 games for the second half -- even if SSI/MC denizens are the only ones who caught the improvement on camera.
Your fast-flick shutter reel also caught the fact that Josh Bard's presence is possibly more impactful than would be a Carlos Beltran acquisition. With Bard, we're talking 3-5 games in the second half -- hey, two games already, kid. Of course, we want the Beltran games now, too.
Most divisions are won by 4 or fewer games, and the 2011 AL West certainly looks like "most divisions." The Mariners, by a delicious coincidence, just placed Chris Gimenez on the 60-day DL due to a tweaked rib muscle (not bone). Apparently they also caught the improvement on camera.
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Cheerio,
Dr D