M's Pole-Axed by Jered Weaver (...and friend)
=== Vintage Eck Territory ===
Thursday's ballgame featured two long, lean SP's with 90 mph fastballs and exquisite command. One is a superstar about to cash in a $125M contract; the other is patted on the head and told "attaboy" for hanging in there with his 3-10 record.
It hits me that really the biggest difference between Jered Weaver, and Doug Fister, is...
Weaver being attuned to whether the hitters are passive or aggressive.
I was amazed during the game. Every time Jered threw a 71-76 breaking pitch, the amped-up batter lunged out in front. (For those who just joined us, when the batter is grinding the bat handle into sawdust, you avoid fastballs and throw soft stuff.)
Watching the game, it suddenly dawned, just how much of Jered Weaver's game is based on his hair-fine feel for where the batter's head is at. He's one of the best you'll ever see.
I don't feel that Doug Fister has this skill whatsoever, and it may be the last thing standing between him and stardom.
Fister may have better pure stuff, and as good of command, as Weaver does. But Fister gives me no sense at all that his pitch sequences are being tailored to a hitter's passiveness or aggressiveness, as such.
It's true that Weaver has always fanned more batters than Fister. But why?
Yes, Weaver's slider has always been a strikeout pitch. Fister's overhand yakker, and his fadeaway change, are works in progress. Frankly, that's another important difference. But Weaver has always had the ability to get punchouts on FB's outside the zone, and on soft stuff against aggressive batters.
Fister grinds his K's by locating perfect FB's. This could change. Fister's current 6.0 strikeout rate isn't so different from Weaver's 6.4 in year three.
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=== M's Rotation ===
For what it's worth, here are my grades of the M's starters for this Dennis Eckersley factor:
- Doug Fister -- I can't perceive any element of this all, though am sure he probably does
- Jason Vargas -- Average to above-average
- Erik Bedard -- Outstanding from the word Go
- Felix Hernandez -- Above-average; Not unusual to see him catch hitters lunging, but many of his sequences are stock and guessable
- Michael Pineda -- Very good already. Which is astounding
The Dennis Eckersley factor ... that is, (1) go soft or off the plate when a batter thinks he's got you zero'ed, or (2) grab strike one with a FB when he's a little confused ... is not the be-all and end-all of pitching. But IMHO, Jered Weaver's insane level of success is driven by this factor and it's one of the reasons that Doug Fister is going to continue to get better.
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We've heard amigos call Fister a number one, but his lack of strikeouts leaves him too vulnerable to circumstances -- BABIP, umpires, jam-shot base hits, etc etc. Right now he is a championship-level #2-3 who is having a great year.
But! Jered Weaver forged ahead and became a superstar with his 90 fastball and command, by improving his pitchability before he lost his stuff. In years 2, 3, and 4, Weaver's FIP and xFIP were 4.00 to 4.50. In years 5 and 6, he has lowered that to around 3.00.
Fister could do something similar. There are pitching stars whose K's are similar to Fister's. In 2006 and 2007, Roy Halladay had fewer K's than Fister does now. Chris Carpenter, Jamie Moyer, David Wells, lots of control artists.
It took Jered Weaver four (4) years. Then the light came on, and stayed on, and from then on he became an automatic W. Maybe for Doogie, it will happen quicker.
For Michael Pineda, it seems to be just about here already, though people won't be fast to credit him. If Hollywood has a super-brain part to cast, they don't seek guys who physically look like Michael Pineda. But Pineda's brain is one of his strongest assets.
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