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Perhaps explain why you cap Smoak's ceiling? ;- )
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The reasons I don't:
35-40-homer natural power - huge guy, big bat wrap, LH in Safeco etc
Excellent ability to tell a ball from a strike
Has shown the ability to do all sorts of things with all sorts of pitches
Has shown glory, in flashes, already
Age-arc is totally consistent with MVP candidacy, e.g. Morneau and 50 others
No platoon issues
etc etc
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What do you see when you look at Justin Smoak and think, "24 homers"?