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Morneau wasn't physically right that season so it isn't exactly the same. He was a MOTO hitter after 110 PAs. Certainly Smoak is dealing with personal grief this year..
I don't think Smoak will be poor, just short of stardom. I think he has mid 800s OPS upside like pre-breakout Morneau. There is 3+ WAR upside there although low 800s is probably more likely.