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2010 Run differential : -123
2011 Run differential:  +69
The M's run differential is not irrelevant, but IMHO it's close.  The points about uncertainty with this particular lineup are valid, but the notion that adding a Fielder buys you 5 wins is silly.  Roster construction is way, way less predictable than that.  I'd say there's even a, say, 20% chance the M's land Fielder - and their run differntial gets worse.  We know this... the M's lost Johnson, then Griffey, then Arod...  and got better.
No move should be made in a vacuum.  But regardless of the run differential, and regardless of the ages of the existing roster, and regardless of the projections for the current players, a bonfide HR threat, OBP machine, cleanup hitter, top-10 hitter in baseball, will help your club.  A lot.