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Also, how many GMs will be in the same jobs 4-5 years down the road when a Taijuan pays off? And then you have to discount injury risk in a young pitcher (what is the percentage chance of that 20 WAR from a young pitcher vs a half year of 1.5 WAR and the possibility of some timely hits in the playoffs?). Or how about the extra value of a documented ability to hit GOOD pitching (eg the kind you see in the playoffs) over and above the value of a regular/mistake hitter?