What we hope we got:
- CF with on-base ability (not walks) and good power (35 DB and 27 HR per 162 in the minors),
- LH starter or crackerjack reliever (9.5K / 2.5 BB in minors career, destroyed AAA this year) with improving velocity
- 5-tool 3B prospect already in the high minors at 20
- Papelbon-type closer ready to help now or blue-chip starter about to hit AA.
What we might have gotten:
- LF whose poor-eye, low-average, moderate RH power approach will be devoured by the Safe
- LH reliever who gives up too many hits to be successful
- 5-tool hitter who is 0-for-5 in turning those tools into performance
- a lesser PTBNL that doesn't pan out
As I think you can tell, I'm not sold on the the 3B Martinez. That said, he's doing exactly what he should be doing: increasing his BA and ISO every year, even while being pushed hard up the ladder. He's got potential either for us or as a trade piece again, and if he IS the guy that scouts say he could be then his explosion over the next couple years could be a delight for us.
I like Furbush quite a bit, depending on his role with us, and Wells I only like in CF, and there reluctantly. .250/.340/.500 (his minor league line) would be great in CF if he could do it, but counting on opposing pitchers to hit you a lot, Fernando-Vina-Style, is less impressive to me than having a good batting eye. And we have a low-average, high-power option in Halman already, so all Wells brings over that is the ability to get HBP. Not my idea of a trade centerpiece under most circumstances.
Halman is a .250/.310/.490 career minor leaguer, btw, was at a walk every 12.5 PAs last season, for instance, while Wells put up a 12.6. Halman strikes out more, and Wells gets HBP more, but is that delta enough to trade FISTER for?
It might work out for us. But I'm gonna need non-Wells guys to work out, and for him to play CF. We're selling Fister as his high-value point, in theory, but that means we better have gotten what that version of Fister is worth.
Right now it feels like we got $1.05 back on our dollar's worth of Fister, which is a plus return...I guess, technically...
But I'm not jumping for joy. It's not $2.50, and none of the pieces seem equal to Fister's worth by themselves, which means we gave up the best player in the deal. Not the way want it to go down ideally, but sometimes it's necessary when you have a lot of holes to trade one very good player for several merely-good ones.
Now, Furbush turning into Jered Weaver, Martinez becoming Miguel Tejada and Wells pulling a Jayson Werth changes my outlook. Ruffin becoming Papelbon is just icing on that cake. ;)
But if only one of the guys we traded for works out, I wouldn't put the odds on Wells, which would leave us in the same bat-desperate position we were in before.
Which is not what I wanted from a Fister trade.
But we'll see - I wasn't sold on Guti either and before his illness he was definitely proving his worth, and Vargas was a great pickup in that deal. Carp might be too, if we let him play.
Jack made his play using one of his more valuable assets - now we see how it pans out. I choose to be optimistic for now...mostly. ;)
~G
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