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I think the main disagreement is in the probability. Based on the track-record of these players, 24+K% would have a 1/4 chance of being an MLBer. 1/10 of being a good regular or better.
The BABIP point made by Sandy is an important one (most of the success cases ran high BABIPs), but the success cases run high BABIPs through power not speed.
Power is the big equalizer for this group and because Trayvon doesn't have the kind of the power the success cases did, he has to show more secondary skills. Honestly, my gut feel is that his chances are worse than the average percentages because he doesn't fit the profile of the success cases. Michael Saunders is a similar type player to the Trayvon group, and they usually fall flat at the MLB because they don't hit enough HRs to make up for the holes in their swings. It creates a breaking point with the bat.
Another trend is that this profile tends to late-bloomers. If you are keeping Trayvon, you give him a TON of time in AAA.