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Right, I'm saying its closer to a 1 in 10 shot. Its not worth the gamble IMO. Better to take advantage of that value in trade.
I'm aware of the flaws in the study, but its still relevant as it shows how the success rate drops as Ks increase.
The non top 100 guys aren't included (like Nelson Cruz), but it probably wouldn't help the high K guys much. Non top 100 guys have higher bust rates.