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It's one in ten that he becomes a star?  Because if we're using those guys as success comps, any of those lines from CF is a star (except for Pena, maybe, but would have had some star years).
By OPS+:
Ryan Howard (ha) - 139
Tim Salmon - 109
Tony Clark - 112
Preston Wilson - 103 
Ryan Ludwick - 111
Glennallen Hill - 112
Dean Palmer - 107
Wily Mo Pena - 94
Russel Branyan - 113
I probably agree with those odds: 1 in ten that he's a star, say 3 in ten that he hangs in there for a few years running a 90 OPS+ while playing CF until we get somebody better, and 60% that he's Jeremy Reed doing an impression of a windmill at the plate.
That'd be 40% success, 60% fail. Carp, Seager, Guti, Wells...how much better are their odds?
Not one bit, IMO.  They just have different ways to succeed or fail.  I'm not mandating a solution to a problem for a decade with this trade of a 3 month arm.  It'd be great, and Trayvon is a chance at that (as it Chiang), but that's not the definition of succeed or fail on this trade.
I just want to get a bat who can do better than what we have and put up a league-average number for his position, cheaply. More than that is gravy at this point.
The Mariners will stop bleeding all over the field the second they field a league-average offense and let their pitching carry the rest of the weight.  That means no more years like Guti, Saunders, Figgins, etc.  Maybe Trayvon will make it worse, and have another year like those guys that drags us back into the sewer.
I guess I'm not sure what you want to see, other than Denard Span.  I wanted Rasmus, but that didn't happen.  I don't think Trayvon is as good as Rasmus, but for all I know he could turn out better.  But if Rasmus was an A-, B+ plan, I don't put Trayvon any lower than a B, B-.  I would have put Span as a B or B+ as well, so I too like that plan better than Trayvon simply because he's shown he can be a positive contributor at the major league level and Trayvon hasn't.
But I don't like it the length of a football field better.  And if Trayvon had, he wouldn't be available, because that power potential if he was already being successful would be too tempting to get rid of. Span will NEVER have power so if his BA ever drops he's toast.  See Figgins, Chone.  But just like Figgins, he can be a plus contributor if it doesn't.  I still think Trayvon has more upside, but the middle ground of Span is steadier and more likely - though not guaranteed.
Where do you see a Trayvon acquisition if the Ms keep him, taro?  You thinking the odds of him contributing are so small because of Ks that it's like a C-, D level acquisition?  And would would Span be / have been?
~G