Hultzen has very good pitching talent, but not special talent. He is not Felix Hernandez, or Bobby Witt for that matter. Neither is Cliff Lee, but that doesn't seem to help the hitters. Hultzen is fun because he wasn't the color-by-numbers call, but the intersection of superior talent (not special talent) with superior intellect, focus, and athleticism (for a pitcher) makes for compelling drama. Did the the M's front office just bank on a pitcher's supreme pitchability? What is the expected success rate of such a call?
It all depends on whether his demonstrated college skills translate. Pitchability is great against non-pros and in college with weird strike zones, but trying to eyeball the difference between a guy who can succeed with a minor-league zone (or that ridiculous 3-foot-wide thing the ump was calling in the Morrow game last night...) and one who can paint the black with a smaller margin for error is tough.
That's why it's great to hear Brad Miller's dad gushing about the ridiculous slider Hultzen has, and how impressed everyone is with him. He needs to have weapons AND pitchability.
If Cole works out, he has more talent than Hultzen, IMO. I'm not especially big on his future though, because he seems far more like a Hochevar low-end / Scherzer high-end type to me and that doesn't wow me.
If Bauer works out he can exceed Hultzen's potential too, I believe. But I can understand being leery of the guy throwing 130 pitches every game, the short kid with the funky motion. I'm not, but it's not my 10 million dollars.
Jungmann might be better than all of em.
Hultzen has always been viewed as the "safer" pick with the lower ceiling but the best chance of reaching it. That may be doing him a disservice - he's obviously a terrific pitcher. But he is also supposed to have the fastest path to the bigs. Bauer may have something to say about that, but if Hultzen really does make the club out of Spring Training, it'll be hard to argue with the idea that he's a #3 arm that helps us NOW and can develop into a TOR guy as he progresses.
Felix / Hultzen / Pineda / Paxton could be a whiplashing R / L / R / L meat-grinder for opposing offenses as soon as April 2012.
I would love for that to be the case. The King (and Cy Young winner), the Surgeon (how soon til we can start calling him Doc?), the Giant, and Thor (with that magical hammer of a curve).
That could be a terrifically fun rotation to watch. Not a Beavan in the bunch. I wasn't fond of the Hultzen decision on draft day, but he's here now: let's hope he's everything the Mariners believe he will be and more.
~G