I hear you, Moe, (and you too, Doc).
It is quite conceivable, given age and background that Casper has simply taken his game up a notch and the minor league stats are underselling his current (and future) ability. I certainly appreciate that Doc's Kinesiology skills are considerable and mine are nil. Would love to swing and miss on this call.
But, why the MLB numbers don't impress me.
His career minors template:
90 patience and 250 ISO on top of a .250 average. Whiffing every 4th PA. That's his career line *AND* his 2010 line in Toledo. No evidence of growth or change. He "flipped" his 2B/HR line back in 2008 from 2:1 to 1:1.
His MLB line is 60 patience, 230 ISO on top of a .290 average. He's whiffing every 4th PA.
My foundation principle here is that we have MLE charts. They say "typically", players (as a group), suffer decline going from AAA to majors. Competition is tougher. Makes sense. But, "some players" get better even after making that move. In order to improve production rates against better competition *something* has to change in the players' favor.
For a guy like Carp, where I see evidence of adaptation, growth and altering of approach while still in the minors, I'm much more open to believing MLB production increases may be 'real' rather than transient.
Casper's Detroit numbers this season "feel" more in tune with what I would expect long term. (And at a 113 OPS+ is certainly nothing to sneeze at). But 3 short looks is different than one long look. Saunders is a poor comp as player type - but is illustrative of a guy incapable of adjusting once the league starts figuring him out.
As for my 55 and 0 comment ... my purpose is to try and emphasize that whatever the analysis of his current mechanics may be - he is not hitting well for Casper Wells. He is hitting well for Ryan Howard. If *every* squared ball clears the fence, he's in a zone that Hall of Famers rarely visit. (which may be reason to get excited ... but also reason to take in-the-moment analysis with a grain of salt).
The league was "still" challenging Ackley after 40 games. They're still challenging Carp. It'll be late September before they get around to not challenging Casper this year (if then).
I'm concerned that because of the quick starts by Ackley and Carp that perceptions have been skewed to forget that 'most' prospects hit worse once they hit the bigs. And I know Seattle fans have precious little experience with actual player development (outside of pitchers) in the last decade.
But, it's a joy to be "down" on a prospect as "only" a 100 OPS+ guy in any case.
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