POTD Jose Campos: Saber Corner
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=== Jose Campos, Saber Corner ===
The 18-year-old Campos right now has -- embellishing just a tad -- 10.0 strikeouts, 1.0 walks, and 0.0 homers in the low-A Northwest League.
Considering the strength of opposition, what sense do you make of that?
An accomplished pitcher, a 23-year-old, will sometimes run crazy numbers in a league that low. Royce Ring would fan 82 men and walk 11 in that league. Matthew Bischoff, age 24, is running a 23:3 CTL this year.
The item out of alignment here? Is for an 18-year-old flamethrower to be running K/BB's as though he were Roy Halladay. That, you don't see.
Here is the Rangers' NWL affiliate. Find the Vicente Campos there. Nope.
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Q. Why would a kid with just a 92-mph fastball be fanning 10.0 men and walking 1.3?
A. He wouldn't.
That's what Blake Beavan is. Blake Beavan ain't gonna be running no blinkin' 82/11 control, 70 IP, in any league including an indy league.
Compare Jose Campos to the other teenagers in HQ's book ... Luke Jackson has walked 46 men in 70 innings this year. Check out Ismael Guillon's horrid stats!
Of course, some of the teenage phenoms are kicking booty. A.J. Cole, a year older, is running a Campos line in the Sally League (and will be very high on the prospect lists this winter). And so on.
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Q. So why IS he taking perfect games into the 7th?
A. Very unusual combination of velocity and location, and (by all accounts) he's already striking people out with offspeed stuff.
Chop it up any way you like. Campos is in the same template as Michael Pineda -- flamethrower with extreme location -- but is ahead of Michael Pineda at the same age. That's the fact.
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Q. What does that mean, being an 19-year-old Pineda?
A. When Pineda himself was 19, SSI's reaction was, whoooo. If nothing goes wrong with that kid, he's going to be Freddy Garcia, at least.
But a lot CAN go wrong with a 19-year-old, of course. Injuries, failure to improve, off-field stuff, etc. SSI didn't start counting its chickens on Pineda until Pineda was destroying the upper minors.
I'm not counting my chickens on Campos. If he hits a Michael Pineda timeline, then next year he's great in A+/AA, and he still needs 2013 in AA/AAA. I'll start crowing about the kid in July 2013 -- a full two years from now.
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Show me a 19-year-old kid who is already pitching like an average MLB starter -- and that is the case here -- and you've got the next best thing to a guarantee.
19-year-olds are going to get better, a lot better. You get a 19-year-old who could already compete at the highest levels, and at 22 he's going to be a star. Jose Vicente Campos would already get lots of outs in the American League. Campos could help a lot of teams now.
His polish, for age and level and his template, is off-the-charts, as Pineda's was. This implies that his polish as a major leaguer will be off-the-charts, as Pineda's is now.