I look at it this way:
What if I came to you in 2016 and said, “Smoak is willing to sign a 7 year/140 million extension with us. He’s had five straight years over 130 OPS+ and three of those over 150 (!!). He’s top 10 in the league in slugging OBP, OPS, offensive WAR, total bases, HRs, RBIs, RC, etc etc etc. We have no one in the minors who is anywhere near ready to provide that kind of production. Why would we not do this?”
What would the hold-up be? Money, years, and his age, right?
Smoak will be a FA after the 2016 season, when he turns 30 that December.
Fielder will start next season as a 27 year old. So congratulations, he’s a FAR better bet than Smoak after Justin’s club-controlled time is up, especially as Justin has a whispered prayer of being anywhere near as offensively powerful as Fielder has been (and will be for the next several years).
Fielder ages 28-34 is a better bet than we are likely to have a chance at in the next several years in FA. We might not like the no-limit, big-blind aspect to MAKING that bet, but it’s the big-boy table.
“What if Fielder gets injured/sucks the last few years?” is no different than “What if Felix gets injured.” Same amount of money lost, and pitchers are more likely to die a horrible quick death and leave you with a big bill than great hitters are. And the flip side of that question is, "What if he DOESN'T and is a monster the whole way through?" If he's Carlos Delgado or Chipper Jones or Jim Thome then his early-30s years are gonna still astound and amaze.
O-WAR through age 27: Fielder 23.2, Delgado 18.0, Thome 27.2, Jones 27.9
By comparison, Teixeira of the 180 million dollar deal has 15.6 through 27 and 34.4 through 31. Another bet that I would make is that Fielder gets more offensive WAR (B-R stat) through 31 than Teix has.
If you were willing to go 5 years on Felix, knowing that several of those years were gonna get mega-expensive, then Fielder is a no-brainer. He’s NOT gonna give you a 3 WAR drop off the year he signs his $100 million contract like Zito did to the Giants. He’s gonna be one of the best power hitters in the league for years to come, and I can't justify passing on the pursuit just because we're unwilling to belly up to the table and look the professionals there in the eyes (or the sunglasses, as it were).
Bring your chips, Mariners, check your cards and start raising the pot. Nobody ever won anything by getting blinded out.
~G
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