And I agree with this:
I wouldn't go that far; my question is whether he has time for those knees against ML pitchers. I think that Vinnie Catricala has about the same chance as Casper Wells, maybe a bit less -- call it 40% chance of hitting well in the bigs.
Catricala is a blue-chipper, not a can't-miss-er. I think he's gonna be moved to the OF, a la Braun (oh, if only he hit like Braun...), and I like his chances better than Wells at a corner. He's 3 months behind Casper (who was promoted to the bigs half-way through last year) and 4 YEARS younger than him. Whoever is comparing Catricala age-vs-level and coming up short is a numbnuts.
Catricala is the same age in AA that Dustin Ackley was - which makes his college numbers look better. He entered college as a 17 year old, not 19 like some of these kids who are held back to make their high-school numbers look better against younger kids. He started slow being younger, then got much better as he matured. He's still growing into his game, and I'm fascinated to see what it looks like when he finally peaks.
Vinnie gets dogged for his BABIP being extremely high. As ghost said earlier in the year, "Take a hundred points off his average and OBP and he doesn't thrill me."
I've never figured out why that would be a linear equation. Mike Carp had a .361 BABIP in Tacoma this year, but it didn't fall to .270 in the bigs - more like .340. Why? Because he was smacking the tar outta the ball. It won't stay THAT high, but if he hits like this, it'll stay high.
My question about Vinnie is whether he can keep his LD% high like he did in AA this year, after being below average in LD's in previous years. IIRC, line drive percentage is usually around 19-20%. Vinnie was at 16% in High Desert, and in the MWL.
LD% is not the be-all, end-all, but it helps keep the BABIP high and more contact goes for hits that way.
In the MWL, Vinnie would sky a few mis-hit balls. That was not happening to him in Jackson. He, too, was smacking the tar outta the ball.
I liked him in the Midwest League. I liked him this year. I don't see any reason I'll stop liking him any time soon. He can absolutely fail - like you said, maybe the knees don't work, maybe they can bust him inside better in the pros, maybe Safeco kills him and neuters the effectiveness of his fly balls.
Maybe he's a tweener who can't manage in the OF but can't hang at an infield corner either. Pedro Grifol doesn't seem worried.
Vinnie Catricala for example: he came to us as a third baseman but now he has seen a lot of time at first base and left field. Do we think he is a third baseman, first baseman or a left fielder? We're not sure...
He hit .300+ in Pulaski, hit .300+ in A-Ball, hit .300+ this year. That's the great thing is that there are players that aren't expected to do much and then, boom, they're right there for us. He can be a left fielder for us or he can be a first baseman or he can be a third baseman, we're just creating some versatility for Jack and Eric, but he's got a bat.
Translation: "No matter where we wind up plugging him in on the field, the kid looks like a hitter, so we're preparing him for whatever fielding position will allow us to get his bat in the lineup."
That'll work for me too. Next year will be interesting, as we'll have taken a lot of talent out of the minors for use at the big league level. Vinnie's now a system headliner, and we'll see how he deals with that instead of with being an underdog. Keep it up kid - in a system that should have a few more serious arms than bats next year, you'll have a big spotlight all to yourself in which to shine.
~G