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That's just the thing, there is a tremendous amount of room for variance.  Trying to figure out where this team currently stands is certainly not as simple as cherry picking some poor performances and replacing them with guys who look like better bets moving forward.  
The expected response to my post was certain to include the fact that the upgrades the M's made had a certain expense to them - ie. Doug Fister and Erik Bedard.  However, once again, we have to calculate the delta between Doug Fister and his replacement for 2012 (Blake Beavan? Paxton? Hulzen?) and the delta between Erik Bedard and his replacement (Erik Bedard? ;-) ).
I certaintly don't believe a fair estimation of the state of the 2012 M's begins the day before their notorious 17 game loosing streak. Which coincided not too surprisingly with Erik Bedard and Justin Smoak's injuries. Nor do I believe the September swoon was particularly representative either, unless you believe Tony Vasquez (responsible for 6 losses August 30th on) is a potential roster candidate for opening day 2012.
My gut tells me that August 2011 is the closest thing we have to April 2012.  A bit below .500, -16 runs on the month (-80 prorated out for the year?). 
That's certainly more than simply Prince Fielder alone, but again, I've always argued that we need to make a major move in addition to Fielder.  2 big MOTO pieces - and then we'll be talking.
- Ben.