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Reyes is a CAREER 106 OPS+ guy.  Not counting  '11, over his last 4 healthy years he's averaged a touch less than 110.    His one full-time healthy year before that he was at 81. and I'm ignoring '09, when he played 36 games. Let's not just give him a series of 120+ years.
He has shown no ability to do that.  He's a very nice 105-110 SS. 
He isn't Ricky Henderson, btw, Doc.  Not at all.  Granted, he's a speedy base-stealer.....but so was Omar Moreno, for goodness sake(tongue-in-cheek).
At age 28, Ricky had never had a fulltime season BELOW 122 and 6 of his 8 had been ABOVE 134.  In those years he had only once had an OBP below .398 and in his first 7 fulltime years he had played less than 142 games only once.  That was in 1981 when he played 108 games.  BTW, that was a strike year and Oakland only played 109 games total.
In the year he was 28, Henderson did only play 95 games....but followed that with 140 and 150 games.  In his first 10 fulltime years, Henderson showed amazing durability, really. He played in about 90% of the possible games, including the year he missed 67 games. 
I know you weren't lumping Reyes and Henderson in the same ability class.  But even durability-wise, Henderson is a poor template for Reyes, who was very durable for 4 fulltime years, and now looks like considerable health risk.  Reyes' breakout '11 performance must be tempered with three season's worth of leg problems.  How often do those just disappear when a player hits 30?
And the last time we invested lots in a speedy, top-of-the-order IF it turned out fairly poorly.
$15M for Reyes?  I pass.