Tale of da Tape (year 1's for Hultzen types)
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Q. Okay, so the hitters will be new to Hultzen. They will be to Paxton also, right? As they were to Pineda?
A. Sure, but Hultzen's game is brain and Pineda's was brawn. Paxton is more in the brawn department, also.
Time for a light bulb, gents. In any sport, you have rookies who bring their games to the enemy, and you have rookies who bob-and-weave.
There is much less intuition involved in Pineda's game. The catcher puts his mitt down and Pineda throws the ball as hard as he can, as accurately as he can. If he does get too much of the plate, well, 98 mph has a way of buffering the pitching headache that can result.
.... time for a change-speed? Pineda whips the arm forward at 98, the ball pops a parachute at 86, right down the middle, the bat's out in front. It's far simpler, and far less entwined with the hitter's particular hot and cold zones. Give me Michael Pineda's (or James Paxton's) pitches and I'll get outs, right now.
Hultzen is in the Erik Bedard category: the difference between dominance and an early shower is sometimes four inches....
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Q. This is your opinion, or this is a fact? ::Herman Munster to Marisa Tomei::
A. It's a fact. Well, pretty much. The brainier the rookie, the more the learning curve plays in. It stands to reason.
There are two LHP's to whom SSI comps Hultzen, those being Johan Santana and Cole Hamels. These two pitchers throw with the wrong arms, have plus fastballs, have nice command within the zone, and rely on straight changeups.
Did Johan Santana have a difficult transition into the majors? Sure he did. His ERA was 6.79 as a rookie and 4.74 the year after. (To be fair, Santana had some control issues early.)
Of course, once Santana got his command and his intuition together -- once the light came on -- he became the best pitcher, other than Pedro, of the last 20 years.
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Q. BTW, why does everybody say that Hultzen is a #2-3 starter at best?
A. This one's out of bounds for sure. Two strokes, tee up again. Fastball velocity does not equal slot in the rotation, Gomer.
... it's a simple FKey7 to create a synonym pair out of "97 mph" and "#1 starter." Though why Michael Pineda wouldn't score these accolades, you go figure...
Is Cliff Lee a 97 mph pitcher? Is Roy Halladay? Are Dan Haren and Jered Weaver proud possessors of nuclear fastballs?
Dr. D mischievously suggests that --- > it is easiest to visualize a minors 97 mph pitcher winning the Cy Young.
It's easy to visualize Taijuan Walker throwing like Doc Gooden. That's all: it's easy to visualize. But if he were an Angels fan, Dr. D would be scared spitless of Danny Hultzen becoming the next Johan Santana.
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Q. Okay, Cole Hamels, did he knee-drop from the top turnbuckle as a rookie?
A. He was certainly good, but compared to his Y2+ seasons, he wasn't anything like what he'd become.
Hamels fanned over 9 men a game as a rookie, but he also walked more men than he would later, and he had gopheritis (1.3 homers in a pitcher-bats league). His BB's and his HR's were both up. BB's and HR's are supposed to see-saw against each other, one up, the other down.
This is precisely the intuition that we're preaching: the 2006 Hamels was super talented, but just did not know when to keep his fingers out of the tiger's mouth. How could he?
That said, if Danny Hultzen gives the Mariners a 2006 Cole Hamels, I'll refrain from rallying a mob to storm Royal Brougham.
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Q. Anybody else?
A. Mark Mulder was a three-pitch FB-CU-CH lefty like Hultzen, who ran a 5.44 ERA as a rook, was blasted for 22 homers in 150 innings, despite playing in a big park...
Year two, Mulder had a sense of danger and a feel for the right time to get ahead in the count, and won 21 games with a 3.45 ERA.
Fangraphs has a cool little article up ...
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