POTD Josh Willingham
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Spec links us to a Jack Zduriencik card-flash off the bottom of the deck: Z wants "an impact bat," whether "by free agency or trade."
Does Josh Willingham float your boat? As you can see from the photo, he's comin' at you with a certain amount of mystery associated.
Lead off the discussion with his .360 OBP and .475 SLG "like clockwork," claims Spec. He's right.
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=== Crib Notes of the Day ===
1. At 5.7 runs per 27 outs last year, 6.2 career (in the NL), Willingham is an impact bat, barely. But if it's an I/O grade, yes, Willingham is an impact bat.
Last year he had 29 homers and 98 RBI's. What a shame for him that human beings were born with ten fingers.
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2. He has been one of the most underrated players in baseball. Offensively he is exactly the same player as Jayson Werth, but as Willingham faces his 33rd birthday, he has pulled down a measly $14M in baseball salaries over his career.
Not real sure he's going to get a big payday this time, either. $6M x 2 wouldn't shock me, but somebody could look it up.
Bill James once made an 8-bullet list of what it takes to be underrated. See if you can find them all in Willingham's career.
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3. Willingham has the kind of production line, at .260/.360/.475, where if he loses 20 points in each category that's ... ummmmm ... :taps chin: .... .240/.340/.450. This would be nothing you want to block Trayvon and Casper for, gentlemen, much less Mike Carp LF.
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4. And he has to go through three transitions retaining his diamond-hard .360 OBP, those being (a) age 33, (b) the NL-AL move, and (c) Safeco Field .... nada.
Hey wait! Willingham already did go through the AL and the big ballpark transition. What happened?
... he started swinging harder and wilder in the AL .... with his EYE and BB's falling off, but his HR's through the roof (okay, it's a 7' roof).
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5. Okay, proceed to level 201 scan...
HR/F ratio was probably somewhat lucky, not vastly so ...
According to Hit Tracker, at age 32, pulled HR's so as to make Jose Lopez proud, but hits them longer, like Casper Wells does ... nope, his average true distance was 400+ feet. This guy gets the bathead out in front and clears Safeco/Oakland, just like Wells does...
EYE drop, from 0.60-0.80 range down to 0.37, was rather unnerving ...
Excellent on straight pitches (FB, Change) and weak on all bendy ones, sliders, curves...
-10 UZR in left field in 2011, which would be corroborated by speed scores and age
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=== Dr's Diagnosis ===
Would you look at this. Spectator took the SSI site deep!
He characterized Josh Willingham, offensively, as being what you hope Casper Wells can become. That is the perfect characterization. We have long suspected Spec' of poor-mouthing and sand-bagging, and finally we have our proof. Off with his head.
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You do have to factor in Willingham's poor defense (probably a real -10 in left) vs. Wells' excellent defense (probably a real +5 or +10 in LF, since Wells can play CF).
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Huh. So do you want to cash in Casper Wells for a "Everything Panned Out" offensive version -- at the cost of some defense? Would you slide 10-15 of Wells' defensive runs over into offense, if you could get a guarantee that he'd hit 27 homers?
The Big Move, no. An improvement of the ballclub? Hmmmmm...
At this point, we'll kick the opinions to all y'all.
Thanks Spec,
Jeff