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As time goes on, saber purists have softened their positions on "after the ball leaves the pitcher's hand" ...
Of course, the first realization was that some pitchers sustain ground balls.  The GB/FB split is obviously "after the ball leaves the pitcher's hand."
Later, they grudgingly acknowledged some ability to sway BABIP from .270 to .320 at the pitcher's skill point .... mostly from changing speeds effectively...
These days, sabers are beginning to realize that certain F/X pitches (slider, changeup etc) are batted differently, so pitch selection is a factor...
Heat maps for command are cherished by sabes, which connects to the old Shandler idea of Mistake Avoidance...
............
The upshot is, these days most sabes will allow *some* ability to notch an ERA above or below your xFIP, but not much ...
A case in point - in 2006-07, Felix' xFIP was just as good as it is now, but his ERA was over 4 for the two years.  I always argued that it was due to over-challenging.  High mistake rate, high HR/FB rate, and it warn't luck.  He came out-and-over, they waited for the centered FB's, and so he gave up the jacks.
The xFIP was 3.3, the ERA 4.3.  Seems to me that a pitcher can easily "earn" an ERA that is 1.00 higher than random batted balls would usually predict.