May not dovetail into the discussion per se. But I have a couple of questions about some of the valuation components and perhaps some more SABR qualified folks can answer them. Here goes:
A) WAR is calculated (depending on website) using some form of fielding metric. UZR? That fielding metric is proprietary, and from what I understand somewhat subjective in nature, true or false?
B) Player X is 80% of player Y. Does WAR treat this line of value equally? In other words, is there no premium allowed for the player who out performs player X? Or is his contribution weighted as simply X (call it average, for argument's sake) + 20%? I'm not explaining my point well but suffice to say, I wouldn't be on board with any system that normalizes performance in this matter.
C) I have argued (with increasing frustration) against some of the concepts behind advanced pitching statistics, not as much the conclusions, as the assumptions made at the outset. I know that pitchers have the most input into batted ball profiles, BABIP theory discounts this influence to zero, basically stating that after releasing the ball, there is no more involvement from the pitcher as to where it ends up. Is this the gist of the theory, or have I simplified the position too much?
D) I'm certainly no statistician but I question the need for regressing the performance of individual players towards the mountain of numbers that make up league averages. Does SABR convention assume that for example: Clayton Kershaw allows 4 HRs/100 fly balls in 2011, that he will move towards 9/100 (or whatever league average is) the next season? I don't get this, if league averages are made up of wildly different totals, what is the magnetism towards the middle? Are we to assume that essentially individuals will find equalibrium with the collective? If so, how could we ever predict a kid to outperform another significantly?
E) I like Fielder to get signed. I also like 15 million additional added to the payroll for this season. That 15 million would hopefully get another RH bat, 3-4 starter, and one reliever. I'm not real confident that this will happen.
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