Add new comment

And is more likely to turn into Figgins than Fielder is to turn into Ethier.  He might be worthless as soon as next year.
Jim Thome came down from an OPS+ in the 170s to having one in the 140s as he aged.  Is it possible that Fielder crashes and burns 3 years early, or blows his back out or something?
Sure.
Felix could blow his arm out pouring a cup of coffee and never be the same either, and in fact a serious injury to Felix is more likely than one to Fielder.  I didn't see that holding us up on his 5 year extension, and if we'd had to go 7 I probably would have.  Just as I'd go 7 or 8 for Fielder.
I've advocated trying to pry Billy Butler out of KC for an arm or two.  That's an Ethier-level bat who is young and could help us quite a bit.  It would be far cheaper monetarily than Fielder.  But one of the best things about Fielder is that ALL he costs us is money.  Trading 4 prospects for Upton or Butler means you have 4 fewer prospects for your lineup or other improvements via trade.
I guess I just have trouble understanding the hangup.  Will Fielder make a lot of money?  Yes.  Will he be worth it?  Almost assuredly, for the next 5-6 years at minimum.  If I could pay for Jim Thome's age 28-35 years (he missed most of one due to injury and still put up about 37 WAR in that timeframe), or Lance Berkman's (32ish WAR), or Ortiz's, or Edgar's...I would absolutely do it.
Is the fear that we pay all that money and he becomes Griffey?  Couple of great years, followed by injury after injury robbing him of usefulness?
We have a DH.  Let him play there.  It's how Thome kept playing, and Ortiz, and Gar.
Or maybe it's that he's like Vernon Wells?  Over-rated and then overpaid?  I don't believe he is - I believe he's a tremendous hitter.  Is Ryan Braun a better one?  Maybe.  A-Rod might have been a better hitter than Edgar, but I wouldn't cry at adding Edgar.
He could fall off a cliff like Hafner or HOFer Eddie Murray in a couple of years, I guess, ALLL the way down to an Ethier/Ibanez level hitter, which would be really expensive...but not worthless to the offense.
I still don't think we're gonna be adding Fielder.  I'm keeping an eye out for any news on possible trades with KC or the Reds, or whomever.  We may very well go with some lesser-light FAs and a trade to try to make this team into a contender going forward.
But the idea that Fielder costs too much/is too risky/isn't worth it is still strange to me.  We already know how much it hurts to have our "safer, cheaper, shorter contract" choices blow up in our faces.  We know what it's like to trade for a great player and have that player fail to keep his health.
We really DON'T know what it's like to pay a marquee free agent the going rate, step into the big-boy ring and compete with Texas and the Angels going forward.  I guess if you think Beltre and Sexson were on the level of Fielder, then we do...but I don't believe they ever were. 
Sexson had an OPS+ over 140 twice in his career.  Fielder's career OPS+ is 143, and he's just hitting his prime.
Sexson is like Fielder only if Bret Boone is a comparable hitter to Edgar.  No, I would not pay Boone an 8 year max contract.  We were lucky we didn't HAVE to pay it to Gar, but he would have been worth it.
To whomever signs him, I expect Fielder to be worth it. 
~G