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Sandy,
You're exctly right on the worst case scenario, the M's get derailed for years to come. There is substantial risk of some degree. I suppose you could argue the chance of a Fielder crash/burn is relatively low, but investment is so high that the effect of such a burnout is magnified. It ripples outward for years to come.
That's why I've said I prefer an Ethier (or Ethier-like) approach.
Ethier is a reliable 3 WAR guy. Fielder is a reliable 5 WAR guy. How much d you pay for 2WAR is a decent question. So is asking how much more disasterous for the franchise will be the collapse of the 5 WAR guy?
moe