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While your question was posed to Doc, I'll throw in my own 2 cents anyway.
While Clement and Smoak have similar aggregate lines, Smoak only has 773 minor league PAs and only 477 in AAA.   Smoak got 397 PAs in the majors at age 23.  Clement got 224 at age 24 and another 153 at age 26.
In the minors, what I see is "static" production all the way up for Smoak.  He puts up a .290/.410/.443 (.853) line in 471 PAs in 2009 (age 22) and gets promoted to the majors after 15 good games to start the next year.  But, his eye, his patience, his slugging.  Nothing moved.  Of course, only being in the minors for 174 games, detecting movement from stats is basically impossible.  Smoak was promoted based primarily off how he looks at the plate, not what he was doing at the plate.
Clement has triple the minor league time ata this point.  He started off with roughly 80 patience and 200 ISO at age 21.  While there are some fluctuations, that's basically where he was in AAA when traded away.
The real parallel between the two is what happened in the bigs.  Both were .280 hitters in the minors.  Both have been .220 hitters in the majors.  But, Smoak's 'gift' is a 100-120 patience rating, (about 40 points higher than Clement's).  While Clement had a much better ISO throughout his minors career.
The projection for Smoak is based mostly on his size and 'look' at the plate make it seem like 30 HRs should be trivial (given his eye ratio).  But, Smoak has consistently run 160-170 ISO lines from infancy to present. 
For me, the defining characteristic for both is stagnation.  They have remained what they were the day they signed contracts until present.  Both have suffered (fairly normal) reduction in production going from minors to majors.  Neither has shown adaptability - (at least statistically).
The worst part of this, IMO, is that gifted with such a gorgeous swing as Smoak, what is he supposed to do to improve?  I feel like Yoda when I examine Smoak's production compared to the Doc's scouting reports - "Much fear in this one I sense, hmmm." 
In truth, you cannot detect adaptability without some time (a larger data pool) to assess the situation.  And Smoak is certainly not someone I would write off.  But, players who do not HAVE to adapt, don't learn to adapt.  Players gifted with natural ability rely on that ability until it is not enough.  And then they are on unfamiliar ground - and it's anyone's guess as to what happens next.
My old saw is that players do not improve because they get older.  They improve because they learn how to do 'something' better.  The truly greats are blessed with ability AND a drive to learn and get better.  Pujols is lauded for analyzing every failed PA.  He adapts within a game.  Mere mortals take weeks or months to adapt.  Some players simply don't have the capacity - so when they reach their ceiling they're stuck.  Worst case - when they begin tinkering, they get worse and then cannot even get back to where they were originally.
Is it possible that Smoak could make a change to unleash a 230 ISO?  Yes.  But, I haven't seen evidence that this is 'likely' to happen.  This is why I remain bearish on Smoak - but continue to hope I'm wrong.