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The bottom line, for me, is that we can't rely too much on minors performance. It's one thing to be aware of, maybe the biggest single thing, but life is not simple ...
Baseball execs these days actually express it in fractions. Are you 60% minors stats, 40% scouting? 80-20? or what?
I used to be 95% stats, and now am quite alarmed to find myself more like 30% stats, 70% eyeball. Heh.