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Now I think I see what you're getting at.
 ... and as you know, when we go into a lecture about things that are obvious to you, there's no condescension intended.  I know that you know about dice rolls, but we use a "Baseball for Dummies" style that we hope will be useful for the 50% of the audience that doesn't live baseball.  :- )
Personally, I enjoy the " ... for Dummies" books.  They're scannable.
........
Will cheerfully concede your point.  There was nothing in Clement's pre-MLB record to tip us off.  Nada.
And will also concede your implication:  "If you were wrong about Smoak, how would you know? You wouldn't."
If Smoak were a AAAA hitter, I *wouldn't* know -- not from his minors performance.
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I think we know that he's not a AAAA hitter based on his plate coverage, the flashes he's shown and the way the scouts have assessed him.  He'll tell us soon enough.  :- )
Best,
Jeff