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Both Clement and Smoak were picked in the 1st round out of college at 21, signed during the summer and went to the Midwest League:
Clement: .319/.386/.522 (30 games)
Smoak: .304/.355/.518 (14 games)
Both started their age-22 seasons at AA:
Clement: .288/.386/.525 (15 games)
Smoak: .328/.449/.481 (50 games)
Both got the call to AAA during the age-22 year:
Clement: .251/.321/.347 (67 games)
Smoak: .244/.363/.360 (54 games)
Clement spent most of age-23 at AAA working on catching, while Smoak started at AAA, got called up, traded, then sent back down in his age-23 season:
Clement: .275/.370/.497 (125 games)
Smoak: .279/.404/.497 (50 games)
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I do get that each roll of the dice is independent.  I do get that most first-round picks never show the ability to play in the majors.
But . . . Clement did show the kind of stats that indicate the ability to play in the majors.  He slugged close to .500 time and again.  He drew walks.  He didn't strike out all that much.  In fact, he put up pretty much the exact numbers as Justin Smoak.
My puzzle is: where is the red flag that tells me Clement is a bad bet?