Add new comment

Thanks for noting Smoak's college stats.  I had never seen them before.  So, I went to the Gamecock site and though they don't have his career stats combined, I did manage to assemble them:
2006: 244-AB; 18-2B; 17-HR; 40-BB; 39-K; .303/.407/.586 (.995)
2007: 260-AB; 16-2B; 22-HR; 54-BB; 40-K; .315/.434/.631 (1065)
2008: 235-AB; 19-2B; 23-HR; 57-BB; 28-K; .383/.505/.757 (1262)
That does demonstrate some adaptability that I had not seen in his minors lines.  However, it solidifies my stance in one regard.  I think his actual power (HR) potential is limited.  All things considered, I think Ackley has more long-term power potential than Smoak does.
In truth, his hit ability increased and his eye improved while at USC (East).  But, his power numbers were pretty darn flat.  Moreover, in looking at his team, in 2006 Robbie Grinestaff also had 17 HRs.  In 2007, James Darnell 19 and Travis Jones 18.  And in 2008, Darnell had 19, Disher had 19 and Reese Havens had 18.  Basically, in terms of power, Smoak did not distance himself from his own teammates.  Ackley did. 
Now, I don't know college baseball well enough to say definitively that USC hits like High Desert ... but my take on Smoak from the get-go has been that his power potential is over-stated, (just as I believe Ackley's is understated). 
But, the college line does make me think that his MLB (and AAA) batting average is not where it should be.  My take on Smoak has changed due to this foray into his college stats.  I'm thinking that his 'natural' production line is more Mark Grace than Mark Teixeira.  My sense today is that he's pushing (or being pushed) to produce more HRs.  I think his tool set (and mindset) would be better served to concentrate on just making solid contact, (doubles are fine), and let whatever his MLB HR rate work itself out.
At this point, I think his development may have been somewhat slowed by trying too hard for power ... or perhaps ... too soon.  This is not to say that he doesn't have some inate power.  But, he really shouldn't be hitting under .230 for 3 months in a row, (which is what he did from May-July).  I think optimal Smoak should be running something closer to Rickie Henderson lines (without the speed, of course) - .280/.400/.440
To succeed, I think Smoak has to maximize his natural talents - (eye and contact) and not be pushed into trying to be a slugger.  Let him be Edgar for a few years and maybe he ups the power numbers later on, (Edgar didn't hit 20 HRs until he was 32). 
Sadly, I still get the feeling that the Mariner organization is working 'against' the talent they've got rather than with it.  I'm not quite as down on Smoak as I was previously - but I may be more down on just how much Seattle has changed their developmental practices.