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At BaseballHQ, the main thing they use to guess pitcher injuries, is IP increase. Shandler's comment on Wilson's 2010: "threw more IP in 2010 than in 2007-09 combined, which has to be a concern.
Wilson threw 204 IP in 2010 -- as a reliever, so to speak -- and 24 more in the playoffs.
Then in 2011, he threw 223, and 28 more in the playoffs -- 251.0 IP for Wilson last year. Interestingly, in his last 5 postseason starts, he walked 18 and fanned 20.
..........
A pitcher doesn't need rotator cuff surgery in order to feel fatigue. Sometimes his ERA just goes up a run :- )