Well, you gotta figure out your internal odds on Walker. Just my own gut:
Ace (top-5 AL) - 5%
TOR (#1 or #2 starter on most clubs) - 15%
#3 or #4 Solid Starter - 20%
Fringe Pitcher - 20%
Washout - 25%
Injured, never makes it - 15%
To me, those are probably generous. A 1/5 chance to be an impact starter, a 2/5 chance to be MOR or better on a good staff. Also a 2/5 chance to never pitch in the majors.
As much as I love the tremendous upside that Walker is, Gio has only one step to go to already be the 1/5 impact guy that we project and hope for Walker to be. It could be that Gio's injury odds may be higher, but I would defer that to the guys that know a lot more than I do.
Benihana can probably analogize this to the net-present value concept more quickly and eloqenlty than I could, but that's how I would approach it. Gio's NPV, as measured in performance is MUCH higher. Of course that could change drastically with time if there are no hiccups with Walker's development and maybe that's the way Beane would want to play it. Either way, it all rests with each GM's internal odds in each category.
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