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Bet's on Rangers lowballing the heck out of Darvish and him going back to Fighters for another year. Then he gets the unrestricted FA and can bank like everyone else.
Darvish is only 25 (4 months younger than Felix) and in good shape. He's not an arrogant fatty like Matsuzaka (listen to yo' doctor & trainers!).
In terms of makeup, Darvish reminds me more of a soccer star than pitcher. Good looks, tall, ripped body, etc. which is common in soccer, but not in baseball. The nude-ish photos, etc. seem to be much more common in soccer too. I'd look at it in that light more than anything else.
In terms of the rookie incident with smoking and pachinko... Regular kids do this all day long in Japan and never get in trouble. There hasn't been much on any personality issues recently either, especially after his rise.
However, Darvish is also involved in a messy divorce right now, which may also cause him to stay. Depending on how that swings and if he signs this year, there's a possibility that Darvish's MLB salary might also be included in any allimony/settlement with his wife. And that could be a huge amount of cash. The wife, Saeko Darvish, also has custody of their sons.