Let me restate - I *could* be wrong about Fielder. I willingly concede that. Yes, during 2011 Seattle *finally* actually began a true youth movement.
But I don't believe that having a roster of home grown boys for 80 games is "enough" time to move a franchise beyond what it had been for a decade. Why? Because of precisely what happened in 2009 and 2010.
In 2009, the club "seemed" to move beyond the "Entitled Vet" era of baseball in Seattle. Vidro and Sexson were gone and Griffey and Branyan were brought in. The sense of things was that players were going to have to earn their playing time. Ichiro getting to play beside Griffey created a dynamic that just imploded the numbers game. The 2009 results had zero to do with the quality of players assembled and everything to do with how they felt playing with each other. Veteran Entitlement had been defeated.
Except it hadn't.
In 2010, the roster had a much more stark makeover. Two rookies juggling the catching duties, Kotchman at 1B, Figgins brought in to play second, while Lopey replaced Beltre at third, Wilson/Wilson at short, Bradley in left. About the only stability was Ichiro, Griffey/Sweeney and Guti. What happened? The club completely disintegrated from the inside out.
I had warned that a Griffey return would only work for one season. Sometimes it is painful being so right. But, the chemical meltdown of 2010 went far, far, far beyond the production level. What happened is the clubhouse turned into a melting pot of dissension, back stabbing, whining and general discontent. The mood was lighter at Bear Stearns in 2008.
So, yes, in 2011, the club (after beginning the season with a single youthful starter), began retooling with rookies and unproven prospects. I peg the youth movement as about 80 games old at this point. That's less than the full season of 2009 to kill off the ghost of VE Past. Didn't work. Wasn't enough.
So, where does VE stand for 2012? It's hard to tell. Olivo and Ichiro are weird hybrids - not exactly home grown - but not exactly imports either. Ryan and Figgins are still on the roster with one a likely starter - but riddle me this? If Figgins hits .350 with a .450 OBP during Spring Training and Seager struggles a bit - who are the fans - and who is management going to put into the starting lineup on opening day?
Does Guti have to re-win his CF spot - or does somebody have to take it away from him?
I don't know what the real dynamic in the clubhouse is - but I do get a sense of where the fans are. Much of the discussion of Fielder has sounded to my ears like Gollum clucking about his "Precious". With commentary that not adding Fielder proves the club isn't even trying - what that tells me is that the perception of the existing talent base is that it is vastly inferior to everyone else - and it has as much been said that without Fielder, the 2012 club has absolutely zero chance of being competitive.
My concern is that the "perception" that 80 games of playing prospects has somehow moved the club into a true youth movement is as flawed as the belief that the club had moved beyond VE in 2009. It is FAR easier to undo good work than to build something sustainable.
My fear is this - if Fielder is added - and the club has modest success - (say 80 wins) - what happens in 2013? Do the club and fans say, "Well, NOW it's time to work with some more prospects." Or will the reality be, "Let's go out and get some immediate help - we don't have time to wait for prospects to develop?"
Ichiro's contract is gone - dump him - sign another $20 million import. We can't gamble on Franklin now - we need a reliable veteran to take us the rest of the way NOW. (So, the club will actually need a veteran RF and a veteran SS, too).
If Fielder is signed for 2012, I believe the odds of developing ANY additional hitting prospects drops drastically, (unless the club completely tanks the 2012 season). Lopez and Yuni both came up basically in tandem with the Sexson/Beltre acquisitions. After that there were (at best) only half hearted attempts at developing talent internally. It was far easier to trade it away and get known veteran production.
For me the real freedom from Veteran Entitlement will come when management (and the fans) can look at a home grown club and say, "Y'know, I think these guys have a chance."
Anaheim's first WS was without any high priced FAs. Texas' first WS was without any high priced FAs. Tampa's first WS was without any high priced FAs. It's not a requirement to get there. It likely IS a requirement to "stay" there.
It is my belief that V.E. Day (Victory over Entitlement) has not yet come. I believe that adding Fielder likely delays it - in the worst case, by another 5-8 years.
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