Yes, it's hard to judge Z's success.
My post wasn't originally intended to be a memo on handedness - it was intended mostly to warn against the danger of hand-waving away every counter-example that might call into question Z's FA selection acumen. Nothing wrong with counting Branyan and Ryan as successful pickups ... but if Bradley and Wilson and Kotchman are ignored ... and then you "give a pass" on Figgins, then I'm sorry, but I've got to question the methodology being employed, because it certainly feels like too many players (especially the poor performing ones) are being ignored.
In the final analysis, the opening day 2011 lineup had zero players with under 700 MLB PAs. The guy with the fewest, (Smoak), was the only player in that opening day lineup to finish the year with a 100 OPS+. EVERY Mariner player that finished with an OPS+ over 100 had fewer than 800 PAs when 2011 began.
This wasn't Z's first year. It was his third. And by the end of it, what was the "veteran" assessment, (guys with 800+ PAs coming in)? The WAR totals are from bbref.
C. Figgins - 39 OPS+ 313 PA - -1.0-WAR; $9 millionF. Gutierrez 53 OPS+ 344 PA - -0.7-WAR; $4 millionJack Wilson- 65 OPS+ 187 PA - +0.6-WAR; $5 millionMiguel Olivo 79 OPS+ 507 PA - +1.0-WAR; $2.25 millionA. Kennedy - 79 OPS+ 409 PA - -0.2-WAR; $750kLuis Rod --- 80 OPS+ 139 PA - +0.1-WAR; $600kBrandan Ryan 83 OPS+ 494 PA - +2.8-WAR; $1 millionLangerhans - 89 OPS+ 64 PA -- -0.6-WAR; $525kM. Bradley - 91 OPS+ 115 PA - +0.0-WAR; $12 millionJack Cust -- 94 OPS+ 270 PA - +0.1-WAR $2.5 million
By my count that is $37+ million spent on 10 players for an aggregate total of +2.1-WAR. ... chosen by Z ... with none breaking 100 OPS+. If you drop the minor league gambles, you still end up with about $35 million for about 3 WAR. I'm sorry, but if you pick 10 players, pay them $35 million and they produce only 3 WAR between them, then you aren't doing a good job of selecting veterans. You aren't even doing an average job. If you continue with an $11 million per WAR rate of return on your veteran pickups, then you're going to need a payroll of $400 million to become competitive.
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