Doubting Thomas Raises a Skeptical Finger …
Hey Doc!
I wrote about the perceived list of players for Fielder extensively over at Mariner Central on Monday (you can click on that to see analysis of Fielder and the Cubs, Rangers, Blue Jays, and Orioles) ...
http://www.marinercentral.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=6648&view=findpo...
Here is the essence of what I wrote regarding Fielder and the Nationals ...
Now we know that Boras did in fact meet with the Nationals (and reportedly several other clubs) recently -- beyond that, all we have is writers spinning yards based on atomically thin info.
Right down there with the Mariners, the Nationals had one of the worst offenses in all of baseball last year ...
Batting Average .242 (27th overall in MLB)624 Runs (24th overall in MLB)On Base Percentage .309 (25th overall in MLB)Slugging Percentage .383 (22nd in MLB)
The Nationals had a 2011 team payroll that was fairly low overall ($57,892,929), so they appear to be at a point where they could accommodate a Prince Fielder. Still, you've got to wonder IF the Nationals would actually go there. They went down this same route last year with Scott Boras and Jayson Werth. They are committed to him for the next 6 seasons at a grand total of $112 million ... and didn't exactly get a lot of bang for their buck last year. In addition, the Nationals have $26 million tied up in Ryan Zimmerman over the next 2 seasons -- he's going to be looking for a huge payday after the 2013 Season when he becomes a free agent (he'll only be 28 at that point). If the Nationals did sign Fielder, they'd also have to figure out what they would do about Adam LaRoche. Here's his contract status ...
Adam LaRoche ...
2012 ... $8 million2013 ... $10 million w/a $1 million team buyout.
The Nationals have basically a Chone Figgins situation on their hands with LaRoche. He underwent season ending surgery shoulder surgery to repair a torn labrum and partially torn rotator cuff back on June 15th. So as far as trade value's concerned -- for a 32 year old -- he's got none. While the Nationals clearly would be looking at a replacement for LaRoche, the question they've got to ask themselves (just like the Mariners) is, "Do we really want to flush $9 million down the toilet and just cut him loose?" That's not going to happen, so they're probably stuck with him this season and will buy out his contract in 2013. In that sense, they would probably look at Fielder as his replacement and figure they'd be sending money down the septic system in terms of LaRoche and his contract -- one way or the other.
Why WOULD the Nationals be looking to sign Fielder?
The Nationals aren't looking at Fielder purely through statistical lenses --- they're looking at him in terms of an overall business investment and seeing an opportunity to win now. Consider this -- both the Cardinals and Brewers will be significantly weakened due to attrition (Cardinals losing Pujols and the Brewers losing Fielder -- their GM Doug Melvin has already pretty much publicly come out and said goodbye). While they might have a hard time winning the NL East ... they might thinking they have a better shot at the NL Wild Card. And one thing that's been shown over time ... winning teams draw fans and make more money. Period. The Mariners experienced a significant attendance increase following the '95 Season ... same thing for the Angels after winning the World Series in 2002 (attendance went up over 700,000 the next year) ... the Milwaukee Brewers gained over 1 million more fans between 2004 (went 67-94 that year) and 2011. They went out and made the deal for Gio Gonzalez, presumably with the belief that they believe that coupled with what they've got coming up (Strasburg coming back, Harper coming up, etc.) that they can win sooner than later.
But that's only part of the picture. As Boras said (ugh! I hate admitting he's right) bringing in a Prince Fielder can mean more to a team in terms of advertising dollars, merchandise sales, and higher TV ratings. Bottom line, Fielder is a Superstar Player and as such, he is the type of guy that a team can market.
Let me put it to you this way. If you're a 14 year old guy and you're looking at buying a jersey ... are you more likely to buy a Adam LaRoche jersey or a Prince Fielder one? Hard choice. So Fielder can help a team sell merchandise like that ... he can make money in terms of billboard and TV advertisements by his sheer name recognition alone ... and he's someone that an organization can try to sell to their fanbase.
Nationals games are broadcast through MASM (Mid-Atlantic Sports Network) and frankly, their deal right now is pretty pathetic. When the Nationals moved to Washington, D.C. from Montreal, Orioles owner Peter Angelos was not a happy camper. So, in order to pacify him and allow the Nationals to move in to his territory, the Orioles were given a 90% stake in MASM ... the Nationals were given 10%. That ownership stake increases by 1% every year to a maximum of 33% (should be around 2035).
Right now, the Nationals have a 13% stake in the network and receive only about $29 million in TV revenues annually.
To give you a comparison, the Mariners earned $64 million from their deal with Fox in 2008 ... the Rangers deal pays them between somewhere in the $75-80 million a year range ... and the Angels deal could net them up to $150 million a year!
Right now, per their agreement with MASM, the Nationals are at a reset point (after 5 years) where they can look to renegotiate their deal with the Orioles and MASM over rights fees. The Nationals are driving hard for a better overall deal from MASM ... and you'd like to think they'd like a bigger stake in MASM. At the heart of it, this is a battle for the Washington-Baltimore media market -- a popularity contest. And if the Nationals believe there is an opportunity to win now ... gain more popularity among the region ... and thus gain more power and overall revenue then they'll do it.
But the bottom line, several million dollar question is -- do the Nationals really and honestly want $65-70 million tied up in only 3 players (Werth, Zimmerman, and Fielder)?
Word is that the Nationals are a bit leery about going to the prom once again with Scott Boras after getting punch spilled in their laps with Jayson Werth last year. I absolutely had to pick Prince's most likely landing spot outside of Seattle ... at this point I'd say it's the Nationals. But as I say that, I remain highly, highly skeptical the Nationals ARE true players for Fielder ... and Mike Zuckerman, who follows the Nationals and writes for them on a day to day basis, is as well for all the reasons listed above ...
http://www.natsinsider.com/2012/01/addressing-fielder-rumors.html
As far as Prince is concerned at this point, Scott Boras is reminding me a whole lot of that guy who, just days before the Prom, is running around in a panicked frenzy -- chasing after all the prettiest girls out there ... and being told each and every time, "Sorry, I'm going with someone else." Meanwhile, Zduriencik is sitting back watching this fiasco from afar with a knowing smile on his face ... making all the necessary preparations for the inevitable knock at the door.
MA
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