Then it'll be fine - he just needs that time. For me, Tim = Steve McNair (minus some DUIs and mistresses).
Steve was a mid-50 % passer for 3 years, then exploded up to 60+% and became a league MVP (and was one yard away from being a champion). He was a strong runner, had a funny, long throwing motion, was raw as a passer out of college, etc.
He figured it out, and became one of three QBs with 30k yards passing and 3k rushing. That's where I expect Tim to get to if given time to develop his passing game - and winning this playoff game should help solidify that chance.
Tim's had a miserable completion % this season, but part of that is because the Broncos throw fewer 10 yard-and-below passes than any other team. If Tim threw short passes like even other run-based teams do, his completion percentage would be almost identical to McNair's in his first full season. If you want me to show the math, feel free to stop over here and here.
Tebow, with his own completion %s on various distances and with Flacco's percentage of attempts at those distances, comes up nearly 7 percentage points. He's not as accurate as he needs to be, but the Broncos' offense accentuates his flaws in that area.
I don't expect him to blow out a knee, no. And if he does, I don't think it'll affect his play-style. He's a bulldozer, not a juker - a loss of lateral explosiveness isn't going to ruin his afternoon. Keep in mind, that playstyle makes him far more effective on QB plays than most people seem to think.
10-for-50 on the ground plus 10-of-21-for-310 in the air makes him 20 of 31 for 360 yards and 3 TDs on QB plays on Sunday, and normally it will also make the rest of the ground game more effective.
He doesn't have to be a LOT more accurate to be a good long-term QB. Just...enough.
So, 3 years from now in my crystal ball:
58% completion rate, 3600 yards in the air, 500 on the ground, 2:1 TD:Int ratio in the air and several more scores on the ground. Joe Flacco with a 5+ ypc added in and a devastating goal-line presence.
The Broncos will again have the #1 rushing attack in the nation, and I doubt you'd want to play that team, especially at home - Mile High sounds more like the glory days than it has in over a decade. You heard that playoff game, right? LOUD.
Assuming he gets the time and they keep building the team (I love you, Von Miller - keep your thumbs attached) then I won't mind this being the definition of Broncos football. All of our championship success was predicated on a devastating running attack, an aggressive defense, receivers who were great blockers as well as good-hands route runners, and a QB with an indomitable will to win who could instill that will in his teammates as well.
If the only real change is getting a QB who runs the ball more, I won't mind at all.
~G
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