My argument with the Ms is they don't need a big investment FA *now*. Why? Because they really don't have a clue where they stand today.
I have NEVER contended that big FA splashes are 100% to be avoided.
A year from now, the Ms "might" be in a position where a big splash FA is exactly what they need. Then again, they might not. The Vlad addition by the Angels was near perfect, because they already had built a really solid base. The Nationals adding Werth was almost suicidally stupid.
There's a lot of gray area out there. You can "bet big" at the right time, a lot too early, a little too early, or utterly stupid. If the Ms had gone after a $25 million bat after tha 2010 season, I would have said "utterly stupid". After 513 runs, 61 wins and ZERO returning players who managed a 100 OPS+, spending multiple years on a big contract FA would have been 100% PR that would've doomed the club to another 10 years like the last 10.
After 2011, my view is that the Ms currently stand somewhere between a little too early and a lot too early. They've got a handful of interesting prospects with incredibly short resumes. Another year "might" answer enough questions that a big move is warranted. It "might" not. I could land on either side of the debate a year from now.
But ... it is important to understand that when you bet large on an expensive multi-year FA that *most* of your bet is about the immediate (next 2-3 years) future. You can factor in later year decline and still justify the expense. When the Angels added Vlad for his age 30-34 years, they had ALREADY won a WS (in 2002), but figured (correctly) that they'd get a few .900+ seasons out of Vlad to go with the solid base they already had ... and that they could live with whatever decline he suffered at the tail end of that contract as new talent came up through the pipeline. Vlad's OPS+ line with Anaheim:
154138147130107 (only 100 games)
That was near perfect. They went to the playoffs in 4 of Vlad's 5 seasons, (but they never even made it back to the Series with him). They swapped in Torii Hunter in 2008 (Vlad's final season) with another well-timed 5-year contract. I personally would've felt with his age that the risk of decline was too high to make that bet, but Anaheim got away in good shape with Hunter. But, of course, he wasn't supposed to be a 150 OPS+ bat anyway. But Anaheim understood they didn't have the OF talent in their pipeline when they snagged Torii. He was a need they could not fill easily from the farm.
What the Marlins did in adding Reyes is kind of where I see the Ms next season. They (ideally) will have a decent foundation of young talent with 1-2 years of experience and then they can look at adding a major piece or two to finish the puzzle. Mind you, I can see both sides of the argument with the Marlins. They have some young talent, but are they "really" close enough where the big move is timed right? Stanton, Bonifacio, Sanchez, Hanley ... the answer could easily be yes. But, it's still a gamble. They only won 72 (which matches their pythag), so they aren't much ahead of where the Ms were in 2011 in terms of won/loss. But, the Marlins had a 93 OPS+ and a 99 ERA+. Add Josh Johnson back to the rotation and bet on some of that under-30 talent improving ... it's a gamble, but a defensible one. Personally, I think they jumped the gun. I don't think they'll overtake the Phillies or Braves. But I see the argument.
The difference between Fielder today and a year from now is that, if you're asking 8 years today, you're only asking 7 next year. The difference is that you didn't spend the $22 million in the year you truly had no shot at all of winning, and because of that, you had an extra 700 PAs to spread around among your prospects to accellerate your process of determining who is legit and who isn't. But, mostly, you confirm (or not) that Fielder is actually the piece you need.
I still believe that utlimately, the Ms are going to realize they're okay at both 1B and DH and Fielder is going to not be what they really need. I think they'll discover that the piece they really need to compete with Anaheim and Texas is going to be in the OF, (I think by end of 2012 they realize they have TWO OF positions that need filling, but are solid at 1B and DH). But there isn't nearly enough data available to feel comfortable about such a projection.
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