If this is true (that no STARS from the Stars 'n' Scrubs mentality are coming up in the near future), then what's left for the M's at this point in the offseason, aside from several somewhat unattractive options for this year?
My best guess: another blockbuster trade.
If our $2-3M remaining budget just flexed back to $12-18M or so, and ownership doesn't want the PR hit from a budget cut - a truly dangerous prospect at this point in time - they should make a second ESPN-leading trade and make it *this* offseason.
A prime opportunity exists in the combination of Jason Vargas' presence and Roy Oswalt's availability. Oswalt is a man who is looking for a one-year deal, and Jason is relatively cheap while quite solid. Should Roy want to build a case for a future contact, Safeco is a valuable ally in that venture - but if he just wants to contend one more time, Seattle can provide that opportunity as well with Roy as Part 2 of a two-part Master Plan. Step 1 is the blockbuster.
Seattle could build an offer for an extendable impact bat around Vargas, one of the Hultzen/Paxton/Walker trio, and any further desired combination of MLB/MiLB talent not viewed as critical to the future (as the remaining two hopeful TORs would then become). It would be quite possible to make one of Casper Wells/Trayvon Robinson a third major piece here, for example. We're quickly able to approach an offer that would command a fairly serious return.
Let's say the incoming bat was a star-type outfielder, cheap enough to allow the Oswalt contract now worthy of a big bucks extension long-term - how would Seattle shape up?
C Montero/Jaso, 1B Smoak/Carp, 2B Ackley, 3B Seager, SS Ryan, RF Ichiro, CF Gutierrez, LF ShinyNewPlayer, DH Carp/Montero
-and-
SP Felix, Oswalt, Iwakuma, Noesi, Millwood | 2 of Hultzen/Paxton/Walker, many other options
Yes, I ignored Figgins and Olivo for the time being. =) Live with it.
Oswalt replaces Vargas, and is a valuable mid-season trade chip if we're not contending. Carp, Montero, and Smoak would each give up approximately 1/3 of Jaso's PA count... whatever that ends up being. Ichiro or Guti likely clear out of the OF logjam after 2012, and if you needed to you could always shift Ichiro back to CF for his final season (in order to clear the corners for Carp and our new acquisition). Also, Oswalt and Millwood are gone in 2013, leaving bright shiny holes for the young ace-types.
My question is... what could you get for a Vargas+Walker/Paxton/Hultzen type of package, or by adding one of Wells/Trayvon to the first package? More pieces could come as needed, of course, but I'd expect those to be the cornerstones unless we landed a guy that required throwing Franklin into the mix. What stud OF types might be gettable, and at what realistic cost? I can't imagine we're in the Mike Stanton or Justin Upton ballparks... but what about Alex Gordon, or maybe Andre Ethier?
Or... is there a better way to spend our dollar-and-talent cookies right now?