On my sleeper: John Jaso
-- John Jaso has only had one bad season in pro baseball (2011)
-- Except for last year's .651, his lowest OPS in a full season was .727
-- Except for last year's .298, his lowest OBP in a full season was .362
-- Instead of showing flashes of good stats amid some ugly ones (*cough*casperwells*cough*), Jaso piled on pretty stats on top of pretty stats right up until last year
-- Jaso drew 59 walks (vs. 49 K), then 72 BB (vs. 47 K), then 46 (vs. 49 K), then 59 BB (in the majors) (vs. 39 K)
-- Jaso has never struck out more than 15% of PAs (including his lost season in 2011)
-- Do you know how hard it is to K less than 15% of PAs and HR more than 3% of PAs over a season? Only 3 current Ms have done it: Montero, Smoak and Jaso.
-- Do you know how hard it is get an XBH or BB in more than 20% of PAs while striking out in less than 15%? Only Ackley, Seager, Smoak and Jaso have done it.
What went wrong in 2011? He was hurt, his BABIP plunged to .244 (had never dropped below .281 before), and he was fishing at pitches outside the zone (O-swing up from 18.5 to 22.6%). He was still making contact, but obviously hitting the ball with less authority.
It's not just that his minor league numbers (and 2010 MLB numbers) show more promise than Wells ... his minor league numbers show more promise than Carp. At least on the things that I look at.
Jaso had a 111 OPS+ and was a 2.7 WAR player (fangraphs) in 2010 (2.3 per b-ref). 5.3 RC/27 per b-ref in 2010. To me, 2011 looks like the outlier, not 2010.
If he can get to the plate, of course.
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