While I agree that the M's are likely to see a drop off from Pineda to Noesi and from Fister to Iwakuma, predicting what that drop will be is beyond my capabilities. I wouldn't be shocked to see both Iwakuma and Noesi toss 3 WAR seasons.
Is there gonna be a drop off from Bedard (and other 5th starters) to whomever wins the out from the Millwood, Beavan, Furbush, Hultzen, and Paxton dice roll at the spot? Prolly not. Check out Mr. Larue's take on the rotation: http://blog.thenewstribune.com/mariners/2012/01/30/mariners-arms-will-be...
And what about Vargas and his vaunted 'twist'? In five starts in Sep/Oct he was 3-1 with a 2.84 ERA and k/9 of 7.7! Can we predict an UP year for him?
And what about the atrocity that was the bullpen for the first half of 2011? Going into 2012 we look waaaaaay better situated to close out games with a shutdown group of reievers.
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The 2011 M's played .500 ball and sat a game and a half out of first in July.
How are the 2012 M's not better?
That's certainly why I was a fan of signing Fielder (albeit to A-Gone money, not A-Rod money). I think the M's threw enough spaghetti at the wall and had enough of it stick (Ackley, Smoak, Carp, Wells, and Seager) that adding a big-stick would vault us into contention.
So, going into 2012 I see this as a .500 team. But not just any .500 team. A .500 team with a AAA rotation in Tacoma that very well could be Hultzen, Paxton, Ramirez, Furbush and Snow. And young guns like Martinez, Catricala and Franklin knocking on the door for positional call-ups.
I don't agree with Baker's latest hit piece. This team can contend this year, and certainly if things break right this team will be well positioned to contend next year.
- Ben.
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