I've made that comp as well this offseason. But how did they gain 31 wins in a year?
Unlike us, they were hitting the year before (103 OPS+ in 2007, 101 in 2008) - they needed arms, and found them (ERA+ from 82 to 116 in a year).
So the problem I'm looking at right now actually isn't with the lineup, it's with these 2 numbers:
3.4
3.2
That's the WAR we lost from Fister and Pineda. Bedard had 1.5 as well in half a year, so when you consider that over the whole year Fister was a 5.5 WAR player...ouch.
If our rotation was Felix / Fister / Pineda / Vargas / Iwakuma with Hultzen and Paxton fighting to get Vargas traded soon, I'd feel perfectly content expecting our staff to crush the opposition while this exact offense crawled up to around a 100 OPS+ and we contended.
Felix / Iwakuma / Vargas / Beavan / Millwood? Yeah...we're gonna need some luck there.
So like I said, this may not be the year since our staff strength was depleted to fix the O and was only average overall last year anyway, even with 3 juggernauts in the rotation.
But the fun thing about pitching is that the adjustment period could be long...or negligible. If your game translates, then it translates (see Pineda). Our pitching value came from basically 6 arms last year: Felix, Pineda, Fister, Vargas, Bedard and League. Half those guys aren't here now, so we need to make it up if we're to make hay in the division in 2012.
Anybody wanna place bets on what Iwakuma can bring to the table and how soon our minor league hydra heads begin poking their heads around on the 25 man roster, starting with Hultzen and Paxton?
Because I feel pretty good about what our offense is capable of. They may not reach those capabilities out of the gate...but they intrigue me.
The ability of our staff to keep us in games and win em, especially early in the season, is a crucial element to pulling off a 2008 Rays-level surprise. Don't wanna be tossing in the towel in the middle of May only to have the mega-talented kids start storming the beaches with guns blazing in July.
Here's hoping Millwood can help with those early months.
~G
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