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>>You compare Ackley, Smoak, and Montero to the Rangers' best three hitters and you're depressed
Hmmm.  Who were the Rangers' 3 best hitters in 2010 when they went to the WS for the first time?  I'd say ... Hamilton (170), Cruz (146) and Kinsler (110).  By WAR, they were 7.0; 4.3; 3.7 in 2010.  So, the question I have is ... exactly how scary were those three hitters in 2009?
Hamilton - 90 OPS+ in 365 PAs
Cruz -- 117 OPS+ in 515 PAs
Kinsler -- 107 OPS+ in 640 PAs
How do Smoak, Ackley and Montero in 2011 compare to the Texas' "murderer's row" that carried the club to its first ever WS the year before they went?
Ackley -- 117 in 376 PAs
Smoak -- 104 in 489 PAs
Montero -- 159 in 69 PAs
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That said ... I completely agree that the key for the Ms is at the low end, not the high end.  The question about winning will be driven by how many of the top 11 hitters have an OPS+ below 85.  If the number is above 2, the Ms chances are slim.  Don't belive me?  Go sort the Giants' WS team (the one with the 98 team OPS+), by PAs and then count the number of hitters in that top 11 with an OPS+ below 85.