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...for three words in your post which I do not agree with.
"better against righties"
Nope...that's not my understanding of The Book at all.  My understanding is...you regress the small split toward the big one a heck of a lot more than you regress the big split to the small.  So...if by better hitter you mean he'll bat .244 instead of .240...then sure.  Otherwise, I'll stick with my interpretation that Guti is, essentially, a .240 hitter against all comers so far in his career and his lefty split is probably inflated.  I am not saying I would necessarily assume he'll hit .240 next year.  I left room for the possibility that he could improve his real performance, leading to a global batting statistic improvement...but he'll have to actually hit better to get better results.  If you could somehow guarantee that he'd only face lefties next year...I'd be projecting him to hit about .250...not .290.