Dr. D reasons that if he pitches BJOL, then he can excerpt recent material more guiltlessly :- ) .... At BJOL, you can gingerly (taking care not to annoy the bears) submit Q's like this one:
Do you tend to agree with the popular idea (BaseballHQ, etc) that a young pitcher's IP should only be increased by a small amount (25-40 or so IP) each successive year? Supposing that a 22-year-old AAA pitcher had thrown only 120 or so innings in 2011, but exploded on the AL in 2012, would you consider letting him make 30 starts if he were feeling good throughout? An illustrative case - Justin Verlander threw 130 IP in 2005, and then threw 200+ IP seasons, if you include playoffs, from 2006 and each season since.
Asked by: jemanji
Answered: 2/13/2012
I think that's become standard practice in baseball; I believe it has. I think most organizations now are reluctant to increase the innings for their young pitchers.
It doesn't seem convincing to me, intuitively, but of course one can't oppose prevailing wisdom with intuition. I do agree that many teams for many years made reckless changes in usage patterns for young pitchers, often resulting in destroying their careers.
I don't know if I can explain why it doesn't seem exactly right to me. As I would see it, a pitcher has injury risks from many different causes. To focus on ONE of those potential causes--his innings on the mound--is not irrelevant, because no doubt the innings on the mound do cause stress (therefore injuries) on many occasions. But I would think it was MORE critical to avoid certain stress points--long outings, innings pitched when the pitcher is not exactly right physically, etc.--than simply to cap the innings pitched. - Bill James